Updated Apr 4, 2011 - 8:51 pm

Felix's struggles make me want him more

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by Mike Salk

Whether or not to trade Felix Hernandez will be the question of the off-season fof the Mariners. You know it; I know it; Jack Zduriencik knows it; Felix knows it. There are legitimate arguments to be made on both sides, and over the course of the next few months, I'll probably change my mind 100 times before he is either signed or traded.

But watching him struggle in the third inning tonight (when he walked the bases loaded) made me hope that he stays in Seattle long-term. Yeah, it was watching Felix struggle to find the plate that made me want him here even more.

And it's because it was so shocking.

Felix has reached the point where it feels weird every time he isn't perfect. Where each hit is frustrating and each walk is almost shocking. And the last pitcher I've felt that way about was Pedro Martinez in the late 1990's and early 2000's.

In all of our conversations about the merits of giving a pitcher the "big contract", we've used the most recent examples of Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown and Barry Zito. But think back 11 years to when the Red Sox extended the contract of the newly acquired Pedro. They gave him six years and $75 million. I'm not sure exactly how that translates into 2009 dollars, but it can't be too far off from what we expect Felix to command. And if he gives them anythng close to what Pedro gave during that contract? It would be a steal at twice the price!

There are no easy answers and I reserve the right to change my mind 100 more times. But today, I'd like to see the M's figure out a way to keep Felix here. He might be the next Pedro.

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  PositivePaul wrote...

  Hmmm...

  Is he more Pedro Martinez or Freddy Garcia. I'm always asking myself that. Freddy was not a terrible pitcher - in fact, he was pretty good. I'm still not sure which side of the Freddy-Pedro spectrum Felix is in - he's still in the middle for me...

  September 9, 2009 3:37 pm

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  MikeSalk wrote...

  Interesting comparison

  You know, my initial reaction was to scoff at the Freddy Garcia comparison but a quick check of his numbers reminds me that he won a lot of games in his first five years in the league. Certainly his win totals were aided by playing on some good hitting teams, but his 3.05 ERA in 2001 (in the heart of the steroid era) is impressive. But it's his only season with an ERA under 3.81, and he finished many over 4.00. By contrast, Felix's ERA was 3.45 last year and will be in the mid-2's when this season ends. So, good question. Better than I originally thought!

  September 9, 2009 8:10 pm

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  PositivePaul wrote...

  It's no secret...

  ...that I've been a big Felix skeptic, but I've never said he's a terrible pitcher. To me, he's really between Freddy and Pedro - better than Freddy, not quite as good as Pedro. Still a heck of a pitcher, just not worthy of the hype quite yet. I followed RJ, even met him right after he joined the M's. He wasn't nearly as hyped as Felix was and he struggled early. But he became a pitcher people specifically bought tickets to go see in person. Felix has a ways to go to become that pitcher, really. Lots of fans in the blogs, certainly, but hasn't really found the mass-market popularity yet. At this point -- I've "Mia Culpa'd" Felix twice now -- I won't "Mia Culpa" him again until he reaches that point... He's a good pitcher, definitely - an ace, really, even. But Greinke's better right now, and the hype surrounding Felix suggests that he SHOULD be more Pedro than Freddy, but I'm still not sure he is. Sure, every pitcher is inconsistent, I get that. But a true once-in-a-generation pitcher is a lot more consistent against GOOD teams than Felix has been. He's getting there, definitely and for his age he's pretty amazing. But he's been in the league awhile and isn't where I thought he'd be at this point, even if he's still a great pitcher... (Again - I DON'T HATE FELIX - for the record -- I just don't 'worship' him like a lot of others do)

  September 9, 2009 11:45 pm

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